Edge Breakdown
where your R actually comes fromLog a Trade
Log the reference, where price opened, and the direction you actually traded. The app shows the textbook setup alongside — and flags it if your trade went against it. Your planned RR is worked out as you type — log 1R, 2R or whatever you actually took.
Trade Log
| Date | Inst | Reference | Type | Dir | Entry | Stop | Target | RR | Outcome | R | Held |
|---|
CSV columns accepted: date, instrument, reference, direction, entry, stop, target, outcome, held, notes. Extra columns are ignored; missing ones are left blank.
The References We Trade
Every prior-day reference is a line — support or resistance. Which side price opens decides whether you trade with the trend (continuation) or fade a change in behavior. The read is identical across all of them; only the level changes.
- Rally HighDowntrend day — the afternoon rally that finds resistance and continues lower.
- Selling TailSingle prints on top of the profile — aggressive sellers rejecting a higher price.
- Down-Spike topThe top of a late down-spike acts as resistance until price proves otherwise.
- Single prints aboveSingle TPOs sitting above price — a level that caps and gets revisited / repaired.
- Pullback LowUptrend day — the pullback low that holds and continues higher.
- Buying TailSingle prints on the bottom of the profile — aggressive buyers rejecting a lower price.
- Up-Spike bottomThe bottom of a late up-spike acts as support until price proves otherwise.
- Single prints belowSingle TPOs sitting below price — a level that supports and gets revisited / repaired.
How the Open Decides — Two Reads, Any Reference
Price respects the level
- Resistance refs
- Open below the level → short. The level caps; sell the rejection.
- Support refs
- Open above the level → long. The level holds; buy the hold.
- Entry
- Run the entry sequence below — look-above-and-fail at resistance, look-below-and-fail at support — then enter on the inversed excess gap.
- Stop / target
- Stop beyond the inversed excess gap · target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
Price breaks the level
- Resistance refs
- Open above the level → long. Acceptance above resistance = character change.
- Support refs
- Open below the level → short. Acceptance below support = character change.
- Entry
- Same entry sequence, following the level: look-above-and-fail at a resistance ref, look-below-and-fail at a support ref. Don't chase acceptance — wait for the failed close.
- Stop / target
- Stop beyond the inversed excess gap · target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
The Entry Sequence · mandatory
Every entry runs this exact sequence. It follows the level, not the trade direction — resistance is always look-above-and-fail, support is always look-below-and-fail.
- 1TPO probes above, closes below. A TPO pokes above the level but its close prints back below it — the failed look-above.
- 2Next TPO probes back in with aggression. The following TPO drives back into the level aggressively, leaving an excess gap on the 1-minute.
- 3The excess gap gets inversed. Price trades back through the gap, inversing it.
- 4Footprint check (recommended). Read the 1-min footprint for trapped participants above the level — extra granular confirmation.
- 5Enter once the gap is inversed. Stop beyond the inversed excess gap; target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
- 1TPO probes below, closes above. A TPO pokes below the level but its close prints back above it — the failed look-below.
- 2Next TPO probes back in with aggression. The following TPO drives back into the level aggressively, leaving an excess gap on the 1-minute.
- 3The excess gap gets inversed. Price trades back through the gap, inversing it.
- 4Footprint check (recommended). Read the 1-min footprint for trapped participants below the level — extra granular confirmation.
- 5Enter once the gap is inversed. Stop beyond the inversed excess gap; target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
Full Matrix
| Reference | Nature | Open below | Open above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rally High | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Selling Tail | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Down-Spike top | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Single prints ↑ | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Pullback Low | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Buying Tail | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Up-Spike bottom | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Single prints ↓ | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
Spike Rules — the Open is the Verdict
A spike is a late probe that's too late to confirm intraday. Next session's open delivers the verdict. The spike extreme is your level.
| Spike | Open below | Open within | Open above | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-Spike | Negative — short the rejected probe | Acceptance — rally intact | Auction unfinished — not high enough | Bottom = support |
| Down-Spike | Auction unfinished — not low enough | Acceptance — break intact | Positive — long the rejected probe | Top = resistance |
Market Profile Playbook
The reference manual behind the system — the auction concepts, structural reads, and trade rules this journal is built on. Everything the setups assume, defined in one place.
Balance
Trading ranges, brackets, congestion. Price is containing trade — buyers and sellers agree on value. "Paradise" for mean-reversion. The bigger opportunity comes when price leaves balance.
Excess
The end of one auction and the start of another — visible as buying / selling tails or gaps. It completes an auction and marks meaningful change. Both pillars signal change, or the potential for it.
The 2R Mind
Going for 2R+ feels uncomfortable because most trades won't reach target. The discomfort is normal — the math isn't. Here's the proof you return to whenever your hand drifts toward the exit.
| Reward | Breakeven WR | Wins / 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0R | 50.0% | 5.0 |
| 1.5R | 40.0% | 4.0 |
| 2.0R | 33.3% | 3.5 |
| 2.5R | 28.6% | 2.9 |
| 3.0R | 25.0% | 2.5 |
| 4.0R | 20.0% | 2.0 |
Your Edge at 2R · per 10 trades
| Win rate | Wins / 10 | Net R / 10 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 3 | −0.6R | Below the line |
| 35% | 3.5 | +0.5R | Profitable |
| 40% | 4 | +2.0R | Profitable |
| 50% | 5 | +5.0R | Strong |
| 60% | 6 | +8.0R | Excellent |
At a 40% win rate — losing six of every ten — the 2R system still returns +2R per ten trades. Six red tickets, and you still win.
Reread Before Every Session
"I only need 3.5 out of 10. I can be wrong more than half the time."
"My job is to protect the 2R floor and let winners reach target."
"A loss that followed the rules is a win for my process."
Holding to Target
Daily Audit
Read today's Profile after the close. Map the shape and the references that formed, and the app builds tomorrow's two scenarios — open above and open below — so you walk in already knowing which setups are live.
Profile Read — Detail
Strongest Setups Tomorrow
Tomorrow's Setup — from your read
| If today was… | Reference & watch | Setups in play |
|---|---|---|
| Rally high / selling tail / single prints above | Resistance levels. Watch the open vs. them. | Open below → SHORT cont · Open above → LONG change (wait for fail-back) |
| Pullback low / buying tail / single prints below | Support levels. Watch the open vs. them. | Open above → LONG cont · Open below → SHORT change (wait for fail-back) |
| Up-spike / down-spike left late | Spike extreme is the level. Open delivers the verdict. | Apply spike rules — open below/within/above the spike. |
| Poor / unsecured high or low | Auction likely revisits the poor extreme. | Lean to continuation toward it. Be patient for the retest. |
| Balance / rotation | No clean directional reference to anchor. | Stand aside on this system, or fade balance extremes. |
Tomorrow's Commitment
Sierra Chart Chartbook
My personal Sierra Chart chartbook — the exact setup I trade from. Two charts: a Market Profile / TPO chart and a footprint chart with a custom absorption detector.
What's included
Full Market Profile / TPO layout — value area, POC, single-print tracking and the prior-day reference structure (rally high, pullback low, tails, spikes) this journal is built around.
Order-flow footprint with a custom absorption detector that activates on three conditions together: delta divergence, delta over 500, and a close beyond the candle's 50% range (above or below). It flags where aggressive orders are being absorbed — the trapped-participant signal behind the entries.
Enquire
Interested in the chartbook? Send an enquiry about pricing.
Swing Desk
Swing bias from the top down: the macro backdrop, last week’s profile, the developing month, and where price sits against monthly VWAP. Context for the auction — the 2R entry rules still decide the trade.
Level Odds
How far price is likely to travel today from where it opened. For every level: the chance it trades, the chance price carries on to the next level beyond it, and — if a 30-minute candle closes back through it — the chance price reaches the next target before a 30-minute close against you.
This week
Weekly bias for the week you're trading. Enter last week's high, low and settlement, or this week's pivots. The Friday read is ready before the week starts; add Monday's close for the stronger read.
Today
Reversal levels
Pivot levels
Nearest to the open first.
Log the day
After the close, enter today's RTH numbers. Every level is marked tapped or not, next to the odds it was given this morning. Over time this shows whether the odds are holding up on your own days.
Your level log
Included in your journal Export and Import. You can also move it as a CSV.
Trades today: chance price reaches the level during today's RTH session, from the open. Carries on to: if price trades at the level, the chance it keeps going to the next level beyond it the same session. 30m close back above / below: after the tag, the chance a 30-minute candle closes back on the right side of the level that session (your entry). Then reaches: from that close, the chance price trades back to the level before it (towards the open) before a 30-minute candle closes back through the level (your stop) — a win rate for the trade.
How the numbers were built. From how far ES travelled from the RTH open on every session Jul 2021 – Aug 2026, scaled to yesterday's daily range and split by whether the open was above or below the daily pivot. Pivots use TradingView's formulas on the full-session daily bar with the settlement close; reversal levels are built from yesterday's RTH session. Weekly figures use TradingView's weekly bar (215 weeks). Roll periods excluded, so it applies directly to a back-adjusted chart. Probabilities over a net-bullish sample, not guarantees.
Options & Greeks
Dealers hedge in the futures you trade. Their hedging is mechanical, so knowing what they are forced to do tells you whether your references are likely to hold or break. This is the reasoning behind the gamma regime you tag on every trade.
Positioning — the map
The Gamma Playbook
Your long setup, in the order you actually run it. The gamma map tells you where; the 30-minute close tells you when. Neither works alone — gamma without flow confirmation is a guess, and flow confirmation at a random level has no hedging tailwind behind it.
-
1
Location you are watching, not inPrice dips into a positive-gamma shelf below price. Dealer hedging absorbs selling here, so it is a location worth watching rather than a random price. It stacks the odds. It does not trigger anything.
-
2
Trigger this is the entryA 30m candle closes above its developing POC and above the 25% range, with sellers trapped underneath. The close does the work — not a tag of the POC, not a wick above it. The period has to finish above both.This is a reclaim / acceptance, not a rejection. A rejection wick can print while the candle still closes weak. Call it what it is or you will talk yourself into entries on wicks that never closed.
-
3
Runway where you are goingNegative gamma above price is an accelerant, not a ceiling. Once price trades up into it dealers must buy to stay hedged, so it can travel fast rather than stall. Treat it as a target zone to trail through, not a wall to fade into — and remember it does nothing until price is actually pushing into it.
-
4
Invalidation you are wrongA 30m close below the shelf with sellers in control means the shelf failed. You are out, or you never took it. Know where the negative gamma sits underneath, because that is where it accelerates against you.
How this maps to your journal
Contact
Questions about the journal, the system, or the chartbook? Reach out — I read everything.
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