Edge Breakdown
where your R actually comes fromLog a Trade
Log the reference, where price opened, and the direction you actually traded. The app shows the textbook setup alongside — and flags it if your trade went against it. The trade only counts if planned RR clears 2.0.
Trade Log
| Date | Inst | Reference | Type | Dir | Entry | Stop | Target | RR | Outcome | R | Held |
|---|
CSV columns accepted: date, instrument, reference, direction, entry, stop, target, outcome, held, notes. Extra columns are ignored; missing ones are left blank.
The References We Trade
Every prior-day reference is a line — support or resistance. Which side price opens decides whether you trade with the trend (continuation) or fade a change in behavior. The read is identical across all of them; only the level changes.
- Rally HighDowntrend day — the afternoon rally that finds resistance and continues lower.
- Selling TailSingle prints on top of the profile — aggressive sellers rejecting a higher price.
- Down-Spike topThe top of a late down-spike acts as resistance until price proves otherwise.
- Single prints aboveSingle TPOs sitting above price — a level that caps and gets revisited / repaired.
- Pullback LowUptrend day — the pullback low that holds and continues higher.
- Buying TailSingle prints on the bottom of the profile — aggressive buyers rejecting a lower price.
- Up-Spike bottomThe bottom of a late up-spike acts as support until price proves otherwise.
- Single prints belowSingle TPOs sitting below price — a level that supports and gets revisited / repaired.
How the Open Decides — Two Reads, Any Reference
Price respects the level
- Resistance refs
- Open below the level → short. The level caps; sell the rejection.
- Support refs
- Open above the level → long. The level holds; buy the hold.
- Entry
- Run the entry sequence below — look-above-and-fail at resistance, look-below-and-fail at support — then enter on the inversed excess gap.
- Stop / target
- Stop beyond the inversed excess gap · target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
Price breaks the level
- Resistance refs
- Open above the level → long. Acceptance above resistance = character change.
- Support refs
- Open below the level → short. Acceptance below support = character change.
- Entry
- Same entry sequence, following the level: look-above-and-fail at a resistance ref, look-below-and-fail at a support ref. Don't chase acceptance — wait for the failed close.
- Stop / target
- Stop beyond the inversed excess gap · target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
The Entry Sequence · mandatory
Every entry runs this exact sequence. It follows the level, not the trade direction — resistance is always look-above-and-fail, support is always look-below-and-fail.
- 1TPO probes above, closes below. A TPO pokes above the level but its close prints back below it — the failed look-above.
- 2Next TPO probes back in with aggression. The following TPO drives back into the level aggressively, leaving an excess gap on the 1-minute.
- 3The excess gap gets inversed. Price trades back through the gap, inversing it.
- 4Footprint check (recommended). Read the 1-min footprint for trapped participants above the level — extra granular confirmation.
- 5Enter once the gap is inversed. Stop beyond the inversed excess gap; target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
- 1TPO probes below, closes above. A TPO pokes below the level but its close prints back above it — the failed look-below.
- 2Next TPO probes back in with aggression. The following TPO drives back into the level aggressively, leaving an excess gap on the 1-minute.
- 3The excess gap gets inversed. Price trades back through the gap, inversing it.
- 4Footprint check (recommended). Read the 1-min footprint for trapped participants below the level — extra granular confirmation.
- 5Enter once the gap is inversed. Stop beyond the inversed excess gap; target the next internal level at ≥ 2R.
Full Matrix
| Reference | Nature | Open below | Open above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rally High | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Selling Tail | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Down-Spike top | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Single prints ↑ | RES | SHORT cont | LONG change |
| Pullback Low | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Buying Tail | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Up-Spike bottom | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
| Single prints ↓ | SUP | SHORT change | LONG cont |
Spike Rules — the Open is the Verdict
A spike is a late probe that's too late to confirm intraday. Next session's open delivers the verdict. The spike extreme is your level.
| Spike | Open below | Open within | Open above | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-Spike | Negative — short the rejected probe | Acceptance — rally intact | Auction unfinished — not high enough | Bottom = support |
| Down-Spike | Auction unfinished — not low enough | Acceptance — break intact | Positive — long the rejected probe | Top = resistance |
Market Profile Playbook
The reference manual behind the system — the auction concepts, structural reads, and trade rules this journal is built on. Everything the setups assume, defined in one place.
Balance
Trading ranges, brackets, congestion. Price is containing trade — buyers and sellers agree on value. "Paradise" for mean-reversion. The bigger opportunity comes when price leaves balance.
Excess
The end of one auction and the start of another — visible as buying / selling tails or gaps. It completes an auction and marks meaningful change. Both pillars signal change, or the potential for it.
The 2R Mind
Going for 2R+ feels uncomfortable because most trades won't reach target. The discomfort is normal — the math isn't. Here's the proof you return to whenever your hand drifts toward the exit.
| Reward | Breakeven WR | Wins / 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0R | 50.0% | 5.0 |
| 1.5R | 40.0% | 4.0 |
| 2.0R | 33.3% | 3.5 |
| 2.5R | 28.6% | 2.9 |
| 3.0R | 25.0% | 2.5 |
| 4.0R | 20.0% | 2.0 |
Your Edge at 2R · per 10 trades
| Win rate | Wins / 10 | Net R / 10 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 3 | −0.6R | Below the line |
| 35% | 3.5 | +0.5R | Profitable |
| 40% | 4 | +2.0R | Profitable |
| 50% | 5 | +5.0R | Strong |
| 60% | 6 | +8.0R | Excellent |
At a 40% win rate — losing six of every ten — the 2R system still returns +2R per ten trades. Six red tickets, and you still win.
Reread Before Every Session
"I only need 3.5 out of 10. I can be wrong more than half the time."
"My job is to protect the 2R floor and let winners reach target."
"A loss that followed the rules is a win for my process."
Holding to Target
Daily Audit
Read today's Profile after the close. Map the shape and the references that formed, and the app builds tomorrow's two scenarios — open above and open below — so you walk in already knowing which setups are live.
Profile Read — Detail
Strongest Setups Tomorrow
Tomorrow's Setup — from your read
| If today was… | Reference & watch | Setups in play |
|---|---|---|
| Rally high / selling tail / single prints above | Resistance levels. Watch the open vs. them. | Open below → SHORT cont · Open above → LONG change (wait for fail-back) |
| Pullback low / buying tail / single prints below | Support levels. Watch the open vs. them. | Open above → LONG cont · Open below → SHORT change (wait for fail-back) |
| Up-spike / down-spike left late | Spike extreme is the level. Open delivers the verdict. | Apply spike rules — open below/within/above the spike. |
| Poor / unsecured high or low | Auction likely revisits the poor extreme. | Lean to continuation toward it. Be patient for the retest. |
| Balance / rotation | No clean directional reference to anchor. | Stand aside on this system, or fade balance extremes. |
Tomorrow's Commitment
Sierra Chart Chartbook
My personal Sierra Chart chartbook — the exact setup I trade from. Two charts: a Market Profile / TPO chart and a footprint chart with a custom absorption detector.
What's included
Full Market Profile / TPO layout — value area, POC, single-print tracking and the prior-day reference structure (rally high, pullback low, tails, spikes) this journal is built around.
Order-flow footprint with a custom absorption detector that activates on three conditions together: delta divergence, delta over 500, and a close beyond the candle's 50% range (above or below). It flags where aggressive orders are being absorbed — the trapped-participant signal behind the entries.
Enquire
Interested in the chartbook? Send an enquiry about pricing.
Swing Desk
Swing bias from the top down: the macro backdrop, last week’s profile, the developing month, and where price sits against monthly VWAP. Context for the auction — the 2R entry rules still decide the trade.
Contact
Questions about the journal, the system, or the chartbook? Reach out — I read everything.
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